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Dr. Wachter's U.S. Mortgage Payment Index

Fourth Quarter, 2007

With new regulations and tightened underwriting guidelines in effect, the "mortgage meltdown" of 2007 has left many borrowers to wonder what type of loan is best for their financial situation and how much house they can actually afford. To help clear the confusion, Dr. Susan M. Wachter, Professor of Real Estate and Finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, has issued her fourth quarterly report in partnership with Genworth. In it, Dr. Wachter compares current mortgage products and payment options, and addresses the importance of responsible lending and homeowner assistance programs to help borrowers start and end on the right track.



Q4: Today’s Mortgage Market Woes Help Shape a Better Tomorrow
At the outset of 2008, those of us who study the real estate market closely are taking stock of what caused the "mortgage meltdown," what is to come and how we can help solve the crisis.

The immediate impact of the mortgage meltdown has been a lack of access to credit for borrowers with low FICO scores and small down payments, and those seeking exotic loans that ultimately turned out to be very risky. This is good news from a societal perspective, but the lack of credit availability for these potential borrowers may have long-term ramifications on the market. Now that we have learned the lessons of risky subprime and exotic mortgages, we must address responsible ways to bring these borrowers back into the market.  Affordable home financing options still accessible to these borrowers include loans secured with private mortgage insurance or through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).

View the entire Q4 Mortgage Payment Index. (pdf | 127kb)

Dr. Wachter’s Bottom Line:

 1. My analysis of monthly payments on combination loans and mortgage insurance-backed loans shows MI loan payments can decrease upon cancellation—most often within five years. New regulations, industry efforts and tightened underwriting are making traditional home financing the most prudent option.




 2. The unprecedented financial hardships experienced by borrowers and lenders are making homeowner assistance programs critical to helping borrowers turn their situations around.

  3. Mortgage insurance use was up significantly in 2007. I expect that trend to continue through 2008, as more high loan-to-value borrowers look for safe and secure financing.

Sources for Q4 Mortgage Payment Index

- 1.8 million loan resets in 2008-2009: U.S. Department of Treasury
- ARM/FRM applications: Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Application Survey
- ARM originations: Inside Mortgage Finance quarterly surveys of 60 top mortgage lenders and Inside Mortgage Finance MBS Database
- ARM Refinancing: Freddie Mac Quarterly Refinance Product Transition Report
- Mortgage insurance certificates and policies: Mortgage Insurance Companies of America

Related Links

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Compare different loan types with Genworth’s Payment Comparison Calculator. If you’re considering mortgage insurance, find the correct rate with the MI Rate Finder.

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